Canadian real estate markets demonstrated remarkable resilience in 2012—with home sales up or on par in 65 per cent of major centres—despite considerable headwinds in terms of tighter financing and economic uncertainty abroad. The trend is expected to continue, with home-buying activity propped-up by low interest rates and an improved economic picture in 2013, according to a report released today by RE/MAX.

The RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook 2013 examined trends and developments in 26 major markets across the country. The report found that the number of homes sold is expected to match or exceed 2011 levels in 65 per cent of markets (17/26) in 2012, led by strong activity in Western Canada, including Calgary (up 13.5 per cent) and Regina (eight per cent). Eighty-one per cent (21/26) of markets are set to experience average price increases by year-end 2012, with Regina the country’s frontrunner at eight per cent, followed by Hamilton-Burlington, Greater Toronto, and Fredericton at seven per cent and Saskatoon at 6.5 per cent. The forecast for 2013 shows the upward trend moderating, but values still ahead of 2012 levels in 85 per cent (22/26) of centres. Stability is forecast to characterize Canadian real estate in the new year, with sales above or on par with 2012 levels in 81 per cent (21/26) of markets.

Nationally, an estimated 454,000 homes will change hands in 2012, falling one per cent short of the 2011 level of 456,749. Canadian home sales are expected to almost mirror the 2012 performance next year, holding steady at 454,000 units. The average price of a Canadian home is expected to remain stable at $364,000 in 2012—on par with the figure reported in 2011. Values are expected to appreciate nominally in 2013, rising to $366,500, one per cent above year-end 2012 levels.

“Looking forward, there are a number of factors on the horizon that will serve to bolster residential activity in 2013,” says Elton Ash, Regional Executive Vice President, RE/MAX of Western Canada. “Canada’s economic performance is expected to show signs of improvement, particularly in the latter half of the year, which should bode well for housing markets across the country. Historically low interest rates will also continue to drive healthy home-buying activity, especially in the move-up segment. Last, but certainly not least, there’s no denying the universal appeal of bricks and mortar. Canadians believe in homeownership. The stability of real estate over the long-term continues to fuel its appeal.”

The report found that low interest rates were a major impetus in 2012, fuelling sales of homes across the board. Tight inventory levels also factored into the equation early in the year, causing a flurry of activity in many centres. By mid-year, however, the third round of CMHC mortgage tightening had a noticeable impact on housing markets, pushing homeownership beyond the grasp of many first-time buyers.

The RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook Report also identified several regional disparities. Most notable was the pull back in sales activity in Greater Vancouver. A banner 2011 year and a slowdown in investor activity contributed to the trend in 2012. Yet, moderation was more widespread in the east, with half of Ontario and Atlantic Canada markets (8/16) reporting 2012 sales off the 2011 pace. Strength was evident throughout Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Nova Scotia, where exceptionally sound economic fundamentals drove demand. The Prairies also stood out in price appreciation, along with the Atlantic Provinces in 2012, and a repeat is on tap for next year. In 2013, Vancouver will rebound to post the strongest sales gain, while the Quebec markets post the sharpest decrease.

“Despite all the negativity surrounding residential real estate, the sky is not falling,” says Gurinder Sandhu, Executive Vice President and Regional Director, RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada. “Home sales have moderated, but remain within healthy levels. Greater optimism is expected to return next year, as the economy marks further improvement. Canadians appear to be reigning in their spending, heeding cautionary statements by the country’s financial leaders. We believe that will only serve to shore up the already healthy framework of the Canadian housing market in 2013.”

While first-time buyers will continue to have a significant presence in the overall marketplace, they are expected to take a back seat in 2013 in Canada’s largest markets—with move-up buyers the new engine driving home-buying activity. The greatest advance in home sales is expected in Vancouver (12 per cent), Calgary (10 per cent), Halifax (five per cent), Kingston (4.5 per cent) and Saint John (four per cent). The strongest upward momentum in average price in 2013 is forecast for St. John’s (six per cent), Regina (five per cent), Kingston (4.5 per cent), and Halifax (four per cent), followed by Fredericton and Winnipeg at three per cent. More balanced market conditions are expected in 2013 throughout the majority of markets, with supply meeting demand.

“The long-term outlook for Canadian real estate remains strong,” says Sylvain Dansereau, Executive Vice President, RE/MAX Quebec. “It has proven so in the past, and it will ring true in the years to come. Canada’s major centres are evolving at a tremendous pace and gaining traction on the world stage. As we look forward, our communities will certainly be more vibrant, more sustainable, while our housing mix focuses on density and diversification. The sheer number of developments planned or underway is staggering. We know the market ebbs and flows—that’s cyclical—but the future for real estate remains quite promising.”

Immigration and population growth will continue to support housing demand moving forward. The Canadian government’s commitment to immigration will hold steady, with the country set to welcome as many as 265,000 immigrants in 2013. The greater focus on economic immigrants is already leading to quicker household formation and homeownership than in years past. These two factors will also support the burgeoning condominium segment—along with Canada’s aging population—while the desire for tangible assets props up the upper-end.

Josh Skapin
Calgary Herald

In all forms of the Battle of Alberta, I fully admit to being a biased Calgarian. Whether it be the sports rivalry or nuances like who has better restaurants or more polite drivers, I’ll turn to the Stampede City 10 times out of 10.

So, it wasn’t a head-scratcher when I saw recent Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. statistics point to a higher average price for single-family homes in Calgary than in our northern counterpart.
What’s worth noting is the widening gap between Alberta’s two biggest cities. In 2009, a few years into the economic downturn, the price difference seemed like pennies.

In fact, if a newcomer to Alberta was on the fence about which city to pick, the cost of a new home likely wouldn’t have made the difference. CMHC says the average price of a single-family home in the Calgary census metropolitan area in 2009 was $547,769. In the Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area, it was $543,243.

Census Metropolitan Area counts neighbouring communities such as Airdrie for Calgary and Sherwood Park for Edmonton.

One year later, the two sides take a bigger step in the opposite direction – where Calgary’s average cost of a single-family home hits $514,466, three hours up the Queen Elizabeth 2 Highway, it tumbles to $490,128. That trend continues and is even more pronounced with CMHC’s estimated closing averages for the two cities in 2012 and 2013 respectively.

If things continue the way CMHC expects, the average cost of a single-family home in Calgary this year will finish at $570,000, while Edmonton’s will be $516,000. CMHC estimates 2013’s prices will be $583,000 in Calgary and only $525,000 in Edmonton. That’s a difference of almost 12 per cent.
CMHC economist Lai Sing Louie says there are a few explanations for the divide. One of the measures CMHC looks at is the new house price index released through Statistics Canada, which tracks the same size of house surrounded by similar amenities in two different periods. That index shows the price of a home in Edmonton is 90.8 per cent of the price it was in 2007, prior to when the economy soured. Calgary is 97.7 per cent of its 2007 price.

“It’s significantly higher,” says Louie. “Calgary has come back more so than Edmonton has since the economic downturn.”

Calgary buyers are also reaching deeper into their pockets for homes than people living in Edmonton. Louie says, despite flat price growth, he’s seen a shift in Calgary buyers putting pen to paper on higher priced homes than people living in Edmonton, adding “that shifted the average higher in Calgary relative to Edmonton.”

“Calgarians like to move-up buy,” says Louie. “If you look around, there are lots of more expensive homes being bought by people in Calgary.” As an example, Louie says just look to the trend in the inner-city where builders are knocking down older homes to put up more modern houses surrounded by central amenities. “That’s happening throughout the inner-city,” he adds.

Economic analyst for the Canadian Home Builders’ Association- Alberta Richard Goatcher says you’ll typically see a higher price tag in Calgary because “incomes are higher and buyers can, on average, carry more mortgage debt and therefore can pay more.” Goatcher suggests land supply may also be an influence.

“In Edmonton, the market is fairly balanced with a good supply in all quadrants,” he says. “Calgary, I believe, has a less-generous supply of new single-detached lots which maybe put more upward pressure on price.”

OTTAWA — Canada’s economy has hit stall speed with few areas of strong support, setting back any talk of interest rates hikes in the new year and likely restarting calls for more government stimulus.

The economy slumped to 0.6 per cent in the third quarter — below even the gloomy 0.8 consensus and about one third what the Bank of Canada had predicted as recently as the summer — as trouble loomed on the export side, housing and business investment.

In addition, Statistics Canada revised downward the second quarter one notch to 1.7 per cent and September, the last month, was flat, meaning the handoff to the current fourth quarter was weak.
If anything, the details of the report were even bleaker than the bottom-line numbers, given that inventory build-up added to growth, and that consumers — already saddled with record debt levels — contributed 3.8 percentage points.

“Certainly we are seeing strong headwinds. There’s not many cylinders firing at all except for the consumer and we don’t know how long the consumer can continue to carry the load,” said Peter Buchanan, a senior economist with CIBC.

Desjardins Capital Markets economist Jimmy Jean noted that without the inventory build-up of as yet unshipped goods, Canada’s third quarter economy would have fallen into a hole.

There was no talk yet of a technical recession — defined as two consecutive three-month periods of contraction — but Jean said the outlook for the last quarter of 2012 are not good. Given the weak handoff from September, he said the economy would need to work hard to eke out a one per cent advance.

The big shock in the third quarter report was that business investment, which the central bank has been counting on to support the economy, fell two per cent per cent annualized, and residential construction dived 4.4 per cent.

Economists lay the steep housing drop on Finance Minister Jim Flaherty’s decision to tighten mortgage rules on July 9, which has taken the steam out of Canada’s previously hot real estate market.

Jean said he believes the decision was still the correct one, although the economy is paying a price now.

“Yes it is affecting the economy and it’s creating a drag, but on a long-term perspective it’s still the better outcome than facing a pure housing market crash and not having done anything about it,” he said.

Economists said the economy’s performance takes any chance of interest rate hikes off the table, likely until 2014.

The federal government is likely to come under pressure to bump up spending, or at least slow down its austerity program, but that is also unlikely barring a far worse outcome in the fourth quarter or early part of 2013.

In a letter to opposition MPs issued Thursday, the finance minister said he was in no mood to receive suggestions that he should increase spending or raise taxes.

“I will continue to stand against costly, new spending initiatives that would increase the size of government and throw Canada off track for balanced budgets,” he said.

The minister was in Victoria on Friday for a round of pre-budget consultations and will almost certainly be asked whether his position has softened.

As expected, net trade also weighed heavily on the economy in the third quarter as exports plunged 7.8 per cent on weak global demand and soft commodity prices.

CALGARY — Alberta’s economy continues to lead the pack across a range of indicators and solid growth will persist in 2013, supported by robust oilsands investment, says Scotiabank’s Global Forecast.

The bank is forecasting the province will lead Canadian economic growth with 3.4 per cent this year followed by 3.0 per cent in 2013.

Employment growth of 3.1 per cent this year and 1.7 per cent in 2013 will also be the best in the country, according to the report.

Warren Jestin, senior vice-president and chief economist with Scotiabank, is in Calgary this week presenting his outlook on the economy.

On Tuesday, Jestin will be discussing the economy at an economic outlook put on by the Calgary Chamber of Commerce. Then on Wednesday, he will be making a presentation on the economy at the annual Calgary Real Estate Forum.

“Well certainly there should be more smiles in Alberta than almost any other place in the country,” said Jestin on Monday.

“Much of that is driven by the ongoing infrastructural projects. We’ve now got demographics that are very, very favourable here.”

“Infrastructural investments remain strong and in fact I think Alberta’s growth may well be supply constrained. You just don’t have the skills or the infrastructure in order to push it ahead as fas as it otherwise would be. For this year, next year and probably into 2014 the odds are very, very strong that Alberta will lead the pack by a very substantial margin.”

Despite some global issues, economic growth in places like China, is good news for Alberta and “amazingly supportive for the commodities sector,” added Jestin.

While Alberta’s economy continues to be a shining light, concerns remain about the global situation which continues to underperform, said the Scotiabank report.

“First, recessionary conditions in the eurozone persist, reinforced by intensifying fiscal austerity and rising unemployment. Weakness is becoming more evident in the larger economies ... Second, U.S. business activity is being undermined by the intensifying problems around the world ... Third, the sharper-than-expected slowdowns in the faster-growing emerging economies of China, India and Brazil have yet to bottom out,” said the report.

“And fourth, even countries with better underlying fundamentals such as Canada, Australia, South Korea, and many of the core members of the eurozone, are being side-swiped by the fallout from reduced global demand.”

Meanwhile, the Conference Board of Canada said Monday that Canada’s domestic economy has softened and its major trade partners are too weak to pick up the slack, limiting growth in GDP to less than two per cent this year.

Canada’s real GDP growth will slow to 1.8 per cent this year, while growth of 2.3 per cent is forecast in 2013, said the board’s Canadian Outlook, Autumn 2012. If a further European sovereign debt crisis can be avoided, or at least contained — and if the U.S. begins to address its fiscal deficit seriously – Canada’s economy is expected to achieve growth of 2.6 per cent in 2014, it said.

“The influence of a grim global environment, coupled with a heavy dose of fiscal restraint, will result in Canada’s economy muddling along through the rest of this year and into 2013,” said Pedro Antunes, Director, National and Provincial Forecast.

“The swift post-recession rebound that occurred in 2010 and 2011, driven by a strong domestic economy, has mostly expired through the first half of this year. Recurring crises stemming from the eurozone, along with some false starts from the U.S. economy, have eroded consumer confidence and slowed business investment and job creation.”

                                                                                                                                                                     by Scotiabank

The Future Southeast LRT Line is not expected to be built for 20 to 30 years. The new residential areas in the Southeast area of Calgary are still growing and have not reached a minimum threshold for the LRT line.

The study on the north section of the line has been recently completed. Calgary City Council will decide on the alignment soon. The alignment would run from the Elbow River by the CPR tracks continuing along the west side of CPR and CNR tracks southward until Ogden Road where it would rejoin the CPR tracks until Glenmore Trail.

The Calgary Transit 20 Year Capital Plan (revised February 2004) has now listed the Southeast LRT line in its plans. Construction is to begin in 2019 and be completed to Douglasdale in 2023. The project is not funded and will cost an estimated $549 million.

Six stations on the North end have been planned:

Ramsay/Inglewood Located: 11th Avenue SE at 10th Street SE

BlackfootLocated: 26th Avenue SE at 11th Street SE near Blackfoot Trail SE

Highfield/BonnybrookLocated: Highfield Blvd. SE near Ogden Road SE

LynnwoodLocated: West of Ogden Road SE, North of Lynnwood community

Millican/OgdenLocated: West of Ogden Road SE at 68th Avenue SE

GlenmoreLocated: South of Glenmore Trail

Right-of-way has been protected for the second phase of the future line from Glenmore Trail through to McKenzie Towne.

Four stations on the South end have been planned:

Douglasdale (Douglas Glen)Located: 114th Avenue SE, East of 24th Street SE

ShepardLocated: North side of 130th Avenue SE, West of Barlow Trail SE

New BrightonLocated: 52nd Street SE, South of 130th Avenue SE

McKenzieLocated: 52nd Street SE, South of McKenzie Towne Blvd.

The line will eventually extend south of Highway 22X to a station close to a future Hospital site at 196th Avenue SE.

A new police survey says most Calgarians believe this is a safe city to live in.

The results of the 2012 Calgary Police Commission Citizen Survey say more people share that attitude than in previous years.

In 2008, when Calgary topped the nation for gang related murders, most people surveyed were nervous about gang activity in the city.

In 2012, Calgarians' biggest concerns in their neighbourhood seem to be home break and enters.

42 percent of Calgarians 'somewhat agree', Calgary is a safe place to live.

The biggest improvement: 52 percent of citizens 'strongly agree' the city is safe.

That's up nearly 30 percent since four years ago.

The latest statistics from AVENUE magazine for 2012 have been released. What interests us the most is how the 'best' communities were selected. The ranking is primarily based on survey responses where participants were asked which factors matter most when choosing a neighborhood to move into or settle in long-term.

The survey results show that low crime rates, reasonable commuting times, and pedestrian-friendliness are among the top concerns for respondents.

If large lots and spacious yards are not an option, people tend to prioritize proximity to children's playgrounds and adult fitness centers. When living close to friends and relatives is not a necessity, people value having restaurants and cafés nearby for social gatherings with family and friends.

Additionally, respondents are highly concerned about property value appreciation, so they closely follow community price growth rankings.

1、Varsity

2、Arbour  Lake

3、Bowness

4、Haysboro

5、Fairview

6、Lake Bonavista

7、Southwood

8、Lakeview

9、Crescent Heights

10、Tuscany

11、Altadore

12、Aspen Woods

13、Elbow Park

14、Mckenzie Towne

15、Beltline

16、Springbank Hill

17、Hillhurst

18、Cranston

19、Montgomery

20、 Sunnyside

21、 Inglewood

22、 Scenic Acres

23、 Cliff Bungalow

24、 Andrews Heights

25、  Ramsay

The Calgary Real Estate Board's market statistics indicate that transactions in surrounding towns have been exceptionally active since 2012. Just how active? You wouldn’t know until you see the numbers—they're quite surprising! However, compared to the transaction volume within the city limits, these numbers are still relatively modest.

Below is a detailed comparison of transaction data, showing which areas have higher sales volumes. One area worth highlighting is Canmore, where, in most cases, condominium sales outnumber those of detached homes.

1. Square footage can be measured any number of ways in condominium plans. Don't believe numbers presented to you. If exact measure is important, carry a measuring tape, and work consistently from the inside measure of condo apartments. Divide the asking price by the number of square feet to arrive at dollar-per-foot costs that you can compare.

2. Parking can be an uncovered stall, a covered stall, indoors but unheated or indoors heated and secured. Its legal status can be either assigned common-area space, or legally-titled ownership. If it is assigned, it should be protected by a formal lease agreement.

3. Construction of condominiums can vary dramatically. Concrete obviously is more long lasting and generally quieter than frame construction, but 'post-tensioned' concrete construction can have problems requiring maintenance. Concrete transmits tapping sounds, while wood-frame buildings can quiver slightly under heavy footsteps. Quality will be your best investment, and I can identify the construction types and any sound issues as you shop.

4. Conversion of rental buildings to condominium ownership has created both opportunities and pitfalls. Some older high-quality concrete buildings have become condos at very affordable prices. As well, some well-built wood-frame rental buildings are being sold as condo apartments at prices that compete with the cost of renting! Yet some low-quality rental buildings converted to condominium ownership are simply not worth buying into.

5. Heating is an important issue in condo buildings. In apartment condos it is usually central gas-fired hot-water heat, which means the cost is covered by your monthly condo fees. Older hot-water heating systems can be heard, but I still prefer it! Electric heat is convenient, quiet and controllable in each room, but it's expensive. New in-floor radiant hot-water heat is wonderful for warm toes, but if you turn the temperature down, it takes a while to respond.

6. Renters will be found in any condo building, as renting of units may not be prohibited by condo bylaws in Alberta. That's good for your flexibility as an owner, but find out how many renters are in the building. If it's primarily renters, largely investors own the building, and they may not share your standards of operation and maintenance. You may also find less of a sense of community in the building and on the board of directors.

7. Age mix of owners might seem a strange consideration, but if you're a yuppie, do you want to live in a retirement home' And if you're enjoying a quiet retirement, you probably want neighbors you can relate to and make friends with. In short, condominium projects can become small communities where 'if you choose the right one' you can make many friends and enjoy an in-house social life.

8. Condo documents are necessary to evaluate any condominium project before you buy. Sellers should have them on hand for you to review on site, and if you have an agreement to purchase, they should be handed to you without hesitation. These include the Condominium Plan, financial statements and budget, the reserve fund study, minutes of the recent annual general meeting and even board meeting minutes, so you have insight into how the complex is being run. If you purchase, your lawyer will obtain an estoppel certificate before closing, which will guarantee no surprises in the monthly condo fee or charges owed by the seller.

9. Orientation of the condo is important if it's an apartment facing only one direction, less so if it's a townhouse or duplex bungalow condominium with more exposures. How much sun does the home receive, and is that sun hitting your bedroom windows at 5 a.m. during the summer? You may prefer it, or you might hate it, so be aware of which way/s a home faces and whether it will be bright enough, too hot, or too dark for your needs.

10. Real estate agents may be licensed to sell condominiums as well as houses, but do they know what they're doing' Use a Certified Condominium Specialist Realtor. If s/he has a real interest in condominium ownership, s/he will also be a member of the Canadian Condominium Institute. If you are buying, Realtor services are at no cost to you, as the selling party pays the brokerage fees, so you might as well receive qualified representation and advice. Whether buying or selling, you want nothing less than top-quality condominium credentials, ability, experience and market knowledge from your Realtor.

Calgary’s first lakeside community offers homeowners exclusive access to swimming, canoeing and beach-lounging in the summer and skating and hockey in the winter, making it easy for active families to spend time together.

Saturday in the ’Hood

On a warm summer night, find locals enjoying a family-friendly meal on the deck of the Newport Grill overlooking Lake Bonavista.

Stats

Population 10,610
Median household income $101,025
Median home assessment $516,000
Median condo assessment $245,000
Home ownership 89.60%

                                                                                                                                         by Calgary Herald

1. Melbourne, Australia
2. Vienna, Austria
3. Vancouver, B.C.
4. Toronto, Ontario
5. Calgary, Alberta
6. Adelaide, Australia
7. Sydney, Australia
8. Helsinki, Finland
9. Perth, Australia
10. Auckland, New Zealand