The Calgary real estate market is expected to maintain its robust performance in 2025, supported by strong population growth, easing lending rates, and improved housing supply. Forecasted sales of over 26,000 units remain 20% above long-term trends, reflecting resilience in housing demand despite economic uncertainties. Price growth is anticipated to moderate, with a citywide annual increase of approximately 3%, compared to 7% in 2024.
Key Economic Drivers
Population Growth
Population growth in Calgary is projected at 3.1%, down from 5.6% in 2024. Although migration is slowing, it remains a significant driver for housing demand.
Alberta’s overall population growth is expected to stabilize at 1.9%, bolstered by both interprovincial and international migration.
Economic Stability
Alberta's economy is poised for a 2.5% growth rate in 2025, driven by investments in alternative energy, carbon capture, food manufacturing, and AI technologies.
A potential easing of international tariffs could amplify economic growth, with stronger-than-expected migration and housing demand as likely outcomes.
Employment Trends
Employment is forecasted to grow by 2.3% in 2025, with notable gains in construction, retail, healthcare, and education sectors.
The unemployment rate is projected to decrease slightly to 7.8% by year-end.
Calgary Market Dynamics
Detached Homes
Sales Forecast: Detached home sales are expected to grow modestly, supported by easing lending rates and increased supply.
Price Growth: Prices are forecasted to rise by 2.9%, down from the 10.8% increase in 2024. Inventory growth in the $600,000+ range will aid in balancing the market.
Challenges: Demand in lower price segments may outstrip supply, resulting in localized price pressures.
Semi-Detached Homes
Demand: Affordability challenges in the detached segment are expected to sustain demand for semi-detached homes, with sales forecasted at 2,400 units.
Price Growth: Prices are anticipated to increase by 3.1%, aided by inventory growth and a shift toward balanced conditions.
Row Homes
Affordability: Demand for row homes will be driven by affordability, particularly in the $400,000–$500,000 range.
Inventory: Rising supply will help moderate price growth to 3.4%, compared to 14.2% in 2024.
Apartment Market
Market Balance: Increased new home completions and easing rental demand will shift the market toward more balanced conditions.
Price Growth: Annual price increases are forecasted at 1.8%, with lower-priced units maintaining stronger demand.
Surrounding Areas
Airdrie
Benchmark price: $642,075 (+9.1% YoY).
Rising inventory and record new construction are improving market conditions.
Cochrane
Benchmark price: $664,625 (+9.0% YoY).
Supply constraints continue, but new listings are helping ease market tightness.
Okotoks
Benchmark price: $693,933 (+9.1% YoY).
Persistent inventory shortages are driving price growth.
Chestermere
Benchmark price: $796,067 (+8.2% YoY).
Detached homes dominate the market, with strong demand in semi-detached and row homes.
Risks and Opportunities
Downside Risks
Prolonged economic uncertainty or broader U.S. tariffs could dampen consumer confidence and housing activity.
Rising inventory amid slowing demand might pressure prices in some segments.
Upside Risks
Faster-than-expected economic recovery and easing tariffs could bolster migration, sales, and price growth.
A significant reduction in lending rates could reinvigorate the market, particularly for first-time buyers.
Conclusion
Calgary’s real estate market in 2025 is set to remain resilient, with steady sales and price growth despite moderating economic conditions. The shift toward balanced market dynamics, driven by rising supply and easing demand pressures, indicates a healthier, more sustainable housing environment.
This forecast report is derived from detailed data provided in the CREB® 2025 Yearly Outlook. Let me know if you’d like further refinements or additional details!
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