By Joel Schlesinger • for the Calgary Herald
More than 60 per cent of new units under construction in November were apartment-style condos. Photo by Brent Calver /Postmedia
Calgary’s resale real estate market is poised for a strong year — though growth will be at a slower pace than recent years — but the threat of tariffs from the United States could dramatically change the outlook as the province’s economy might be thrown into a recession.
That’s the assessment of the Calgary Real Estate Board’s 2025 forecast, which envisions two possible outcomes — one good and one bad for the city’s real estate and economy this year.
“If it wasn’t for this risk, the outlook would have been a little different, probably brighter — though the market is in good shape heading into the year,” says Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist with CREB.
Indeed, the outlook speaks to strong conditions for the real estate market should tariffs not become an issue.
Sales are expected to remain 20 per cent above the historical average, reflecting the strength of demand in the market, particularly for affordable single-family detached homes.
As well, interest rates are forecast to fall even more this year, expanding purchasing power for prospective buyers.
CREB predicts the city should see more than 26,000 sales this year, though activity will mark a slightly declining trend since the record high of 2022.
Supply is expected to expand with the report adding that increased supply from a record level of new home starts will shift the market into more balance between buyers and sellers. About 29 per cent of the more than 22,600 starts last year were single-family detached homes, but multi-family development has been very robust.
Of all the 23,700 housing unit types under construction in November, 30 per cent were rental and 61 per cent were apartment condo homes.
This activity will likely put downward price pressure on the resale apartment and rental market this year “That’s where we will likely see some adjustments with more choice, which will limit some of the price growth,” Lurie says.
Overall, prices in the resale market are expected to climb, especially for single-family detached homes priced under $1 million. As well, sales are expected to be slightly higher than last year due to rising supply of homes priced above $600,000 and pent-up demand.
Row and semi-detached homes should see modest price and sales growth. Increased supply will likely keep prices from exceeding three per cent growth year over year in all three segments. In contrast, significantly more supply in the apartment market — partly due to new construction — is likely to keep sales strong, but prices could fall about three per cent, CREB forecasts.
Much of the forecast is dependent on what happens south of the border. The report, in turn, also painted a more dire scenario involving the Trump administration implementing tariffs on Canadian exports to the U.S. — including oil and gas, Canada’s largest export to the U.S. — which could be in place as early as Feb. 1.
The forecast notes the tariffs are likely to harm the province’s economy, possibly pushing it into recession, negatively affecting employment and consumer confidence.
The resale market would also be hit, Lurie says
“You’d have all this supply coming on just as demand is negatively affected.” Still, it’s likely that any ill outcome from the tariffs would not send prices below pre-pandemic levels, she adds.
As well, the report notes the tariffs could be fleeting or may never emerge at all. In either case, the housing market would then be on track for a strong year that reflects more balance for buyers and sellers.
“Despite that one risk, market conditions are still pretty good by historical norms,” Lurie says.
For Calgary Real Estate summary in January, please read the link here.
