Elevated lending rates are expected to weigh on sales in 2023, bringing levels down from the record-high in 2022. However, with forecasted sales of 25,921 in 2023, levels are still expected to be higher than the activity reported before the pandemic. Recent growth in migration and employment is expected to help offset the impact of higher lending rates, keeping annual sales activity higher than levels achieved throughout the 2015 to 2019 period.

The growth in new listings in 2022 was not enough to offset the gains in sales and supply levels have remained low, especially for lower-priced product. The higher lending rates are also expected to weigh on listings growth in 2023 as it has become more challenging for a move up buyer. While improved starts are expected to help support supply growth, thanks to the strong migration levels, supply levels are not expected to report significant gains.

The low starting point and limited upward pressure on supply in 2023 is expected to prevent any significant downward pressure on prices as demand normalizes. However, conditions are expected to vary depending on price range and property type. Higher-priced homes are expected to see some downward price pressure as that segment of the market is not experiencing the same supply constraints. Meanwhile, supply declines relative to sales for lower priced properties are expected to continue to support modest price growth. Declines in the upper end of the market are expected to offset gains in the lower end of the market as total residential prices in Calgary are expected to stabilize in 2023.

TOP CONSIDERATIONS FOR 2023:

LENDING RATES With rates not expected to ease until 2024, higher lending rates throughout 2023 are expected to weigh on housing market demand.

MIGRATION Recent gains in migration are expected to offset the impact of higher lending rates, keeping sales activity stronger than pre-pandemic levels.

EMPLOYMENT Recent job growth in industries beyond what was impacted through the pandemic is expected to prevent a more significant adjustment in sales activity.

SUPPLY Low inventory levels especially for lower priced product is expected to prevent widespread price declines in our city.

Please read the full forecast here.

December 2022 in Auburn Bay, a sought-after community in SE Calgary, showcased a dynamic real estate market. The area continues to attract buyers due to its family-friendly environment, proximity to amenities, and beautiful lake. Total 17 properties were sold.

Detached Houses

• Sales: 6 detached homes sold

• Average Days on Market: 59 days

• Price Range: $479,500 - $1,500,000

• Market Trend: The market remained competitive with a mix of new listings and existing homes. Homes priced competitively tended to sell quickly.

Duplexes

• Sales: 1 duplexes sold

• Average Days on Market: 25 days

• Price: $461,500

• Market Trend: Duplexes experienced strong demand, especially among first-time buyers, with many homes receiving multiple offers.

Townhouses

• Sales: 6 townhouses sold

• Average Days on Market: 22 days

• Price Range: $271,500 - $400,000

• Market Trend: Townhouses showed steady activity, appealing to both young professionals and small families. The inventory remained relatively low, supporting price stability.

Apartments

• Sales: 4 apartments sold

• Average Days on Market: 55 days

• Price Range: $287,000 - $374,900

• Market Trend: The apartment market was slower compared to other property types, with more inventory available, leading to longer days on market.

Conclusion

December 2022 marked a robust end to the year for the Auburn Bay real estate market, with a variety of property types appealing to different segments of buyers. The overall trend indicates a healthy market, though potential buyers should be prepared for competitive situations, especially with detached homes and duplexes. As we move into 2023, monitoring inventory levels and interest rates will be crucial for understanding future market dynamics.